Will Germany win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Current price
9.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9.5%
$6.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies primarily on official information from UEFA to identify the tournament champion, with a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary backup. The criteria are straightforward: if Germany is eliminated or becomes mathematically unable to win the tournament, the market will resolve early to No. An explicit cutoff date of July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET is provided, specifying that cancellation, delay beyond that time, or the absence of a declared winner will resolve the market to Other. The mechanics are clearly defined with minimal ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Germany will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. It includes a specific fallback resolution to "Other" if the tournament is cancelled, postponed, or fails to declare a winner by a set deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Germany wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if at any point it becomes impossible for Germany to win under UEFA rules, such as being eliminated in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Official information from UEFA serves as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution Cutoff Deadline: — Tournament must declare a winner by this time or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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