Will Georgia win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Last captured price
2.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.35%
$2.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome is clearly tied to official tournament results from UEFA. Holders should note the early resolution provision, which allows the market to resolve to No immediately once it is mathematically or rule-wise impossible for Georgia to win, such as elimination during qualifying rounds or group stages. A specific backstop date is in place: if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past July 23, 2028, or fails to crown a champion by that time, the market resolves to Other rather than remaining open indefinitely. UEFA serves as the primary authority for determination, with credible reporting available as a standard fallback.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Georgia will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. It includes a specific resolution condition if the tournament is cancelled, delayed past a set deadline, or fails to declare a winner.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Georgia wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Georgia to win the tournament under UEFA rules, such as being eliminated in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Resolution is determined primarily using official information from UEFA, with a consensus of credible reporting accepted as an alternative.
Key dates
- Tournament resolution cutoff date: — Market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond this time, or no winner is declared.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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