Will France win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Current price
18.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 18.5%
$6.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly depends on whether France wins the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament according to official UEFA results or credible reporting. Holders should note two structural rules: the market can resolve early to 'No' as soon as it becomes mathematically or tournament-wise impossible for France to win (such as elimination during qualifiers, playoffs, or the tournament itself), and the market will resolve to 'Other' if the tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET without a declared winner.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether France will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. It includes a specific contingency to resolve to an alternative outcome if the tournament is cancelled or postponed past late July 2028.
How it resolves
The market will resolve to Yes if France wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market will resolve to No if it becomes impossible for France to win the tournament under UEFA rules, such as elimination in the playoffs. The market will resolve to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Official information from UEFA serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution Cutoff Date: — Market resolves to Other if cancelled, postponed past this time, or no winner is declared.
Resolution source
UEFA or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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