Will Finland win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Last captured price
2.4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.4%
$2.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clear and rely on official tournament outcomes from UEFA. Holders should note that the market includes an early resolution clause: if it becomes mathematically impossible for Finland to win (such as elimination in qualification or the group stage), the market will resolve to No immediately rather than waiting for the final. Additionally, if the tournament is postponed beyond July 23, 2028, or cancelled, the market resolves to Other rather than waiting indefinitely.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Finland will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. The market includes a provision to resolve to Other if the competition is cancelled, postponed past late July 2028, or concludes without a declared winner.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Finland wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible at any point for Finland to win the tournament under UEFA rules, such as through elimination in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Official information from UEFA serves as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Tournament completion cutoff: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for the tournament to conclude and declare a winner before resolving to Other.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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