Will Croatia win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Last captured price
1.4¢
+0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.4%
$3.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome is anchored to official tournament information from UEFA regarding the champion of the competition. Participants should note the early resolution provision, which allows the market to resolve to "No" immediately if Croatia is mathematically eliminated from contention at any stage, such as during qualification or the tournament proper. There is also an explicit deadline clause resolving the market to "Other" if the tournament is cancelled or postponed past July 23, 2028 without a winner being declared.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Croatia will win the UEFA EURO 2028 football tournament. Resolution can occur early if Croatia is mathematically or formally eliminated from contention prior to the final match.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Croatia wins the UEFA EURO 2028. This market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Croatia to win per the rules of UEFA, such as being eliminated in the playoffs or tournament rounds. This market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Resolution is determined by official information from UEFA, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as an alternative source.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The market resolves to Other if no winner is declared or the tournament is postponed past 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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