Will Bulgaria win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Last captured price
0.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.2%
$2.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market tracks a clear competitive outcome governed by UEFA. Market participants should note that the market features an early resolution mechanism, resolving to No as soon as Bulgaria is mathematically eliminated or fails to qualify under UEFA rules. A clear deadline is established: if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past July 23, 2028, or no winner is crowned by that date, the market resolves to Other. Official data from UEFA serves as the primary benchmark.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bulgaria will win the UEFA EURO 2028 football tournament.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Bulgaria wins the UEFA EURO 2028. This market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Bulgaria to win under UEFA rules at any point, such as being eliminated during the playoffs. This market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond the specified deadline, or if no winner is declared by that time. Official information from UEFA is the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Postponement and resolution cutoff: — The market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past this time, or has no declared winner.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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