Will Belgium win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Current price
3.45¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.45%
$6.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves based on whether Belgium wins UEFA EURO 2028 according to official information from UEFA, with consensus reporting serving as a secondary check. The rules provide an early resolution mechanism, specifying that if Belgium is eliminated from contention at any point, the market will immediately resolve to "No". Additionally, there is a clear cutoff date of July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, after which any cancellation, postponement, or absence of a declared winner leads to an outcome of "Other". The terms align closely with standard tournament operations and rely on the official governing body.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Belgium will win the UEFA EURO 2028 football championship. The market includes a specific fallback provision resolving to Other if the competition is cancelled, postponed past late July 2028, or left without a declared winner.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Belgium wins the UEFA EURO 2028. The market resolves to No if at any point it becomes impossible for Belgium to win the tournament under UEFA rules, such as through elimination in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Official information from UEFA will serve as the primary source for resolution, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Tournament resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if postponed after this time or if no winner is declared.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.