Will there be four or more UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes an eligible Prime Minister, requiring official appointment by the monarch and counting only unique individuals between market launch and December 31, 2027. It explicitly confirms Keir Starmer counts as one individual and excludes interim or caretaker roles. Official UK government records serve as the primary source, making the factual determination straightforward with minimal decider judgment.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the number of unique individuals who officially hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on the number of unique individuals to hold the position. For example, if an individual is appointed twice within the specified timeframe, they will only count once for resolution. To count for resolution, an individual must have been officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. An individual’s time of appointment will have no bearing on this market so long as the individual officially serves as Prime Minister within the specified timeframe. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market For clarity, Keir Starmer will count as one Prime Minister for the purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether four or more unique individuals will have served as UK Prime Minister by the end of 2027. The count includes only officially appointed individuals, not interim or caretaker Prime Ministers.
How it resolves
This market resolves YES if four or more unique individuals officially hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An individual counts only once, even if appointed multiple times. To count, an individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count. This market resolves NO if fewer than four unique individuals officially hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom during the specified period. The primary resolution source is official information from the Government of the United Kingdom. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Market close: — The period for counting Prime Ministers ends at this time.
Resolution source
official information from the Government of the United Kingdom
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.