Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution criteria are straightforward and match the title question. The rules clearly state that an announcement of retirement from the Supreme Court by the specified deadline triggers a positive resolution, including future-dated retirements regardless of whether they have taken effect yet. Resolution relies directly on official statements from Justice Alito or his official representatives rather than media speculation or unconfirmed reporting, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or discretionary calls.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Supreme Court Associate Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by September 30, 2026. An announcement qualifies even if the effective date of retirement is in the future or if the retirement never actually takes effect.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The announced retirement timing may be immediate, at the end of the current term, or at any point in the future, and any qualifying announcement counts regardless of whether the retirement goes into effect. The market resolves to No if no qualifying announcement is made by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Key dates
- Announcement deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for Samuel Alito to announce his retirement.
Resolution source
Official announcements from Samuel Alito or one of his official representatives
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.