Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define how market capitalization is calculated using the total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first day of trading.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define how market capitalization is calculated using the total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first day of trading. The resolution source is explicitly designated as the official listing page of the primary exchange, with sensible fallback provisions if data is omitted. Specific edge cases, such as trading interruptions, abbreviated sessions, exact boundary values, and an expiration date if no public listing occurs by December 31, 2027, are comprehensively addressed.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic achieves a market capitalization between $2.75 trillion and $3.0 trillion at the close of its initial public offering trading day. Values falling exactly on a bracket boundary resolve to the higher range.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization is between $2.75T and $3.0T based on the closing price on its first trading day. Market capitalization is calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves to No if the market cap falls outside this range upon IPO. The market resolves to 'No IPO by December 31, 2027' if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If trading is interrupted on the first day, the official closing price of the abbreviated session is used; if none is published, the next trading day with an official close is treated as the first day. Resolution is determined by the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if unavailable.
Resolution source
The primary exchange’s official listing page, or another reliable source if not displayed
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·