brierpoınt
Tech & ScienceCloses · in 413 days$553K volumePart of: Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap →

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Trade on Polymarket ↗Referral link

Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly specify how market capitalization is calculated using total shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly specify how market capitalization is calculated using total shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution relies primarily on the primary exchange's official listing page, with a fallback to other reliable sources only if the figure is missing. Clear contingency rules cover trading halts, abbreviated sessions, boundary values between brackets, and an explicit expiration deadline of December 31, 2027.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

38%

chance

▲ +1.8 pts · 24h

Yes38¢
No62¢
$1.25–$1.5T · Yes · 1MO 10.2 H 45.3 L 10.2 C 38.5+28.3 (+278.8%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +10 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 12:55 UTC

The market rose from 29% to 40% as part of a broader repricing across 4 related IPO valuation outcomes, with higher valuation ranges such as $1.5–$1.75T and $1.75–$2.0T moving down.

  • Largest hourly change: 12:00 UTC, 66% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 416 days after the move hour.
  • 4 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: $1.5–$1.75T (down), <$1.25T (up), $1.75–$2.0T (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 13:05 UTC

Earlier

▲ +10 pts · 7 Nov 2026, 08:10 UTCThe contract rose from 21% to 31% as related Anthropic IPO valuation markets repriced together, with the sub-$1.25T outcome also rising and the $1.5T–$1.75T bracket falling.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 08:20 UTC

Earlier

▲ +11 pts · 6 Nov 2026, 18:55 UTCThe price rose from 17% to 25% alongside moves in 2 related outcomes for Anthropic's IPO market cap, including an increase in <$1.25T and a drop in $1.5–$1.75T, which is the likely driver.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 23:06 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Market explained

This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization on its IPO day will fall within a specific range, with a unique resolution for values exactly between two brackets and a fallback for no IPO by a set date.

How it resolves

The market resolves Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading is between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion, inclusive. If the market capitalization is exactly $1.5 trillion, it resolves Yes. The market resolves No if Anthropic's market capitalization on its first day of trading is outside the specified range. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027" if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If there is an interruption in the normal trading session, the market resolves based on the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published for an abbreviated session, the market resolves based on the next trading day's official closing price, which is then considered the first day of trading. Resolution is based on the primary exchange’s official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed there.

Resolution source

the primary exchange’s official listing page

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·