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Tech & ScienceCloses · in 413 days$662.6K volumePart of: Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap →

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly define market capitalization as outstanding shares multiplied by the first-day closing share price, relying primarily on the official listing page of the primary exchange.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly define market capitalization as outstanding shares multiplied by the first-day closing share price, relying primarily on the official listing page of the primary exchange. The timeline is anchored to the IPO's first day of trading, with a firm expiration date of December 31, 2027. Boundary conditions are addressed with an explicit rule resolving exact threshold values to the higher bracket, and edge cases like trading interruptions or abbreviated sessions have specific fallback procedures.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

24%

chance

▼ −2.8 pts · 24h

Yes24¢
No76¢
$1.5–$1.75T · Yes · 1MO 24.3 H 35.0 L 17.2 C 24.4+0.1 (+0.4%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +13 pts24h · detected 11 Nov 2026, 12:40 UTC

The price rose from 17% to 29% as part of a broader repricing across 4 related Anthropic IPO valuation brackets, with higher tiers like $1.25–$1.5T also rising while sub-$1.25T and above-$1.75T outcomes declined.

  • Largest hourly change: 05:00 UTC, 34% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 415 days after the move hour.
  • 4 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: $1.25–$1.5T (up), <$1.25T (down), $1.75–$2.0T (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 12:50 UTC

Earlier

▼ −11 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 12:25 UTCThe market fell from 32% to 21% as part of a broader repricing across related Anthropic valuation outcomes, where lower valuation ranges moved upward.News check pending.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 12:35 UTC

Earlier

▲ +11 pts · 7 Nov 2026, 19:55 UTCThe market rose from 20% to 31% alongside shifts across 3 related Anthropic valuation brackets, marking a broader repricing of the event's potential outcomes as a likely driver.News check pending.AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 20:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Market explained

This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization is between $1.5T and $1.75T at the market close of its first day of trading. It includes specific provisions for trading interruptions, exact boundary values, and a fallback if no IPO occurs by the end of 2027.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first trading day falls within the $1.5T to $1.75T range. If the market capitalization falls exactly on the boundary between brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. The market resolves to No if the market capitalization falls outside this range upon IPO. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027" if no IPO takes place by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If trading is interrupted on the first day, the official closing price of the abbreviated session is used, or the next trading day with an official closing price if none is published. Resolution is decided by the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if unavailable.

Resolution source

The primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if not displayed.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·