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Tech & ScienceCloses · in 413 days$950.2K volumePart of: Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap →

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly specify how the market cap is calculated (shares outstanding multiplied by closing price on the first trading day) and designate the primary exchange listing page as the primary source.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly specify how the market cap is calculated (shares outstanding multiplied by closing price on the first trading day) and designate the primary exchange listing page as the primary source. Clear tie-breaking rules and contingency provisions for shortened or interrupted trading sessions are included, alongside a definitive expiration date of December 31, 2027 if no IPO occurs.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

11%

chance

▼ −2 pts · 24h

Yes11¢
No89¢
$1.75–$2.0T · Yes · 1MO 25.5 H 33.5 L 5.5 C 10.8−14.7 (−57.5%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −13 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 02:10 UTC

The price fell from 21% to 8% as related outcomes repriced together, with the lower market-cap ranges of $1.25T–$1.5T and $1.5T–$1.75T both rising.

  • Largest hourly change: 06:00 UTC, 44% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 415 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: $1.5–$1.75T (up), $1.25–$1.5T (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 02:20 UTC

Earlier

▼ −10 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 18:10 UTCThe implied probability fell from 17% to 7% as part of a broader repricing across Anthropic IPO valuation brackets, with lower valuation tiers such as under $1.25T and $1.25T–$1.5T seeing simultaneous upward moves.News check pending.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 18:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Market explained

This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization falls within a specific range on its initial public offering (IPO) day. An unusual aspect is the explicit handling of market interruptions and the resolution if no IPO occurs by a specified date.

How it resolves

The market resolves Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization is between $1.75 trillion and $2.0 trillion, inclusive, at the closing price on its first day of trading. If the market capitalization is exactly $1.75 trillion, it resolves Yes. If the market capitalization is exactly $2.0 trillion, it resolves Yes. The market resolves No if Anthropic's market capitalization is outside the specified range on its first day of trading. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027" if Anthropic does not have an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the number of outstanding shares by the closing share price on the first trading day. In case of a trading interruption, the official closing price of the abbreviated session is used. If no official closing price is published for the first day, the next trading day with an official closing price is considered the first day. Resolution is based on the primary exchange’s official listing page, with other reliable sources used if the figure is not displayed there.

Resolution source

the primary exchange’s official listing page

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·