Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly defines how market capitalization is calculated using the official closing price and shares outstanding on the first day of public trading.
Read the full assessment
This market clearly defines how market capitalization is calculated using the official closing price and shares outstanding on the first day of public trading. It explicitly identifies the primary exchange listing page as the primary source, includes a precise boundary rule resolving exact ties to the higher bracket, specifies handling for abbreviated or interrupted trading sessions, and sets a clear long-term expiration date of December 31, 2027, if no IPO occurs.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.35 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization at market close on its initial public offering (IPO) day falls between $2.25T and $2.5T. It includes a specific fallback outcome if Anthropic does not complete an IPO by the end of 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization at market close on its first day of trading is between $2.25T and $2.5T, inclusive of the higher bracket if the value falls exactly on the boundary. The market resolves No if the market capitalization falls outside this range. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027" if no IPO takes place by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If trading is interrupted, the official closing price of the abbreviated session is used; if none is published, the next trading day with a published closing price serves as the first day of trading. Resolution is determined by the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed.
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if not displayed.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·