Will Juan Branco advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what qualifies for a positive outcome, including the standard case of finishing in the top two of the first round or the rare case of winning outright with over fifty percent of the vote. The market primary source relies on a consensus of credible reporting, but specifically specifies the French Ministry of the Interior as the definitive official authority if any ambiguity arises. An expiration date of December 31, 2027 provides ample buffer past the expected spring 2027 election date, leaving very little room for surprising resolution edge cases.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Juan Branco will advance to the second round of the next French presidential election or win outright in the first round, regardless of whether the election is held as scheduled or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Juan Branco advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins outright in the first round. The market resolves to No if he fails to advance, if no such election occurs, or if first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election date: The election is expected to be held around April 2027.
- Resolution cutoff deadline: — First-round election results must be known by this date and time, or the market resolves to No.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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