Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes advancement to the second round under France's two-round electoral system, including an outright win in the first round as a qualifying condition for a Yes outcome. The market covers both a regularly scheduled election in 2027 and any earlier snap election, with a hard backstop resolving to No if no first-round results are established by December 31, 2027. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, but provides a precise official fallback to the French Ministry of the Interior if any reporting ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether Marine Le Pen will advance to the second round or win outright in the first round of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it is held early or as scheduled.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Marine Le Pen advances to the runoff second round of the next French presidential election or wins the presidency outright in the first round with over 50% of the vote. The market resolves to No if she does not qualify, if no election occurs, or if the first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguous cases decided solely by official results from the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior.
Key dates
- Cutoff date: — Market resolves to No if the election has not occurred or first-round results are unknown by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to the French Government (Ministry of the Interior)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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