Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes advancing to the second round, including the edge case of an outright first-round victory. The resolution criteria accommodate an early snap presidential election as well as the regularly scheduled 2027 vote, with a fixed long-stop date of December 31, 2027, resolving to negative if no election or first-round results occur by then. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, backed by the French Ministry of the Interior as an official source in the event of any ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether Édouard Philippe will be one of the top two candidates in the next French presidential election, or win outright in the first round. The market has a specific deadline for the election results to be known.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Édouard Philippe advances to the second round of the next French presidential election. The market also resolves Yes if Édouard Philippe wins the election outright in the first round. The market resolves No if Édouard Philippe does not advance to the second round and does not win outright in the first round. The market resolves No if no such election occurs. The market resolves No if the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior.
Key dates
- Expected Election Date: — Around April 2027
- Results Deadline: — First round results must be known by this date and time (ET).
Resolution source
French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior
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