Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly define what constitutes advancing to the second round, including winning outright in the first round. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated official fallback to the French Ministry of the Interior if results are disputed. A hard cutoff resolves the market to No if the first round has not taken place and yielded results by December 31, 2027, which participants should keep in mind if an election were to be postponed beyond that date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether Sarah Knafo will advance to the second round or win outright in the first round of the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule or early.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Sarah Knafo advances to the runoff second round of the next French presidential election or wins the presidency outright with over 50% of the vote in the first round. The market resolves to No if she does not advance or win outright, or if no such election occurs, or if the first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Expected election period: The election is currently expected to be held around this time. Date as stated: 2027-04.
- Resolution cutoff date: — Market resolves to No if the election has not occurred or first-round results are not known by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Government (Ministry of the Interior)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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