Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves to Yes if Manuel Bompard advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins outright in the first round, covering both a snap election or the scheduled 2027 vote. If no election occurs or first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, it resolves to No. The resolution process relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with official vote figures published by the French Ministry of the Interior serving as the definitive fallback if any ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Manuel Bompard qualifies for the second round or wins outright in the first round of the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule or early.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Manuel Bompard advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. The market resolves to No if he fails to qualify for the second round, if no presidential election occurs, or if the first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Expected election date: The next election is expected around April 2027.
- Resolution cutoff date: — The market resolves to No if first-round results are not known by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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