Will François Bayrou advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly align with the standard two-round French presidential electoral process, specifying that the market resolves positively if the candidate wins outright in the first round or advances as one of the top two contenders. The rules cover both regular and early elections. A longstop deadline of December 31, 2027 resolves the market to negative if no election takes place or results remain unknown. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit official fallback to the French Ministry of the Interior if any ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether François Bayrou will advance to the second round or win outright in the first round of the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule or early.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if François Bayrou advances to the second round of the next French presidential election, or if he wins the election outright by securing over 50% of the vote in the first round. The market resolves to No if he does not advance to the runoff or win outright. The market also resolves to No if no presidential election occurs or if the first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results reported by the French Ministry of the Interior deciding in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election period: The election is expected around April 2027, but applies whenever held.
- Cutoff date: — Market resolves to No if first-round results are not known by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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