Will Michel Barnier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution conditions are clearly defined, specifying that the market resolves to Yes if Michel Barnier either reaches the second round of the next French presidential election or wins outright in the first round. The rules accommodate both scheduled and snap elections occurring before the end of 2027, with a default resolution to No if no election takes place by December 31, 2027. While the rules reference a consensus of credible reporting as the initial resolution basis, they explicitly designate the French Ministry of the Interior as the definitive official source in case of any ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether Michel Barnier will advance to the second round or win outright in the first round of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it is held on schedule or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Michel Barnier advances to the runoff second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright by securing over 50% of the vote in the first round. The market resolves to No if he does not advance or win outright, if no such election takes place by the deadline, or if first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Ministry of the Interior serving as the deciding source in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election window: The election is currently expected to take place around this time. Date as stated: 2027-04.
- Resolution deadline: — First-round results must be known by this time or the market resolves to No.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the French Government (Ministry of the Interior) as the official source in case of ambiguity
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