Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Last captured price
41.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 41.5%
$23.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly align with the standard two-round electoral process in France, specifying that the market resolves positively if the named candidate advances to the second round or wins outright in the first round. The resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit named fallback to official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity arises. A longstop deadline of December 31, 2027 provides sufficient buffer for the anticipated April 2027 election while resolving to negative if the election is delayed past that date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jean-Luc Mélenchon advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins outright in the first round. The market has a specific deadline for the election results to be known, otherwise it resolves No.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Jean-Luc Mélenchon advances to the second round of the next French presidential election. It also resolves Yes if he wins the election outright in the first round. The market resolves No if Jean-Luc Mélenchon does not advance to the second round and does not win outright in the first round. The market also resolves No if no such election occurs or if the results of the first round are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on the official results reported by the French Ministry of the Interior.
Key dates
- Expected Election Date: Around April 2027
- Resolution Deadline: — Results of the first round must be known by this date, otherwise the market resolves No.
Resolution source
French Ministry of the Interior
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