Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution conditions are straightforward and align directly with the standard two-round electoral system for the French presidency. The market resolves affirmatively if the candidate finishes in the top two of the first round or wins outright with over fifty percent of the vote. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, with explicit recourse to official results published by the French Ministry of the Interior if any ambiguity arises. A clear deadline of December 31, 2027, ensures that if the election is postponed beyond that date or canceled, the market resolves negatively. Overall, the mechanics are well-defined and leave minimal room for unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
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Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether Raphaël Glucksmann advances to the second round of the next French presidential election. The market resolves based on the official results, with a specific fallback if the election does not occur or results are not known by a set date.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Raphaël Glucksmann advances to the second round of the next French presidential election. This also includes winning the election outright in the first round. This market resolves to No if Raphaël Glucksmann does not advance to the second round. This market also resolves to No if no such election occurs or if the results of the first round are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior.
Key dates
- Expected election date: Around April 2027
- Resolution deadline: — If first round results are not known by this date, the market resolves to No.
Resolution source
French Government, Ministry of the Interior
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