Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the conditions for a positive resolution, including qualifying for the runoff or winning outright in the first round of the next presidential election, whether held on schedule or early. Resolution relies primarily on credible media consensus with an explicit fallback to official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if reporting conflicts. A clear longstop date resolves the market to No if no election takes place or round-one results are unavailable by December 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether François Hollande will advance to the second round or win outright in the first round of the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if François Hollande advances to the runoff second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright by securing over 50% of the vote in the first round. The market resolves to No if he does not advance or win outright, if no election occurs, or if first-round results are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguous cases decided solely by official results from the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior.
Key dates
- Expected election period: The election is expected to be held around this time, but earlier elections also qualify.
- Resolution cutoff: — Results of the first round must be known by this deadline or the market resolves to No.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Government (Ministry of the Interior) used if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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