Will Gabriel Attal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify the conditions required for resolution, accounting for standard runoff mechanics as well as an outright victory in the first round. The market covers the next presidential election whether held on schedule in 2027 or called earlier, backed by a final deadline of December 31, 2027, resolving to No if the election does not occur in that timeframe. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, but provides a definitive fallback to official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if any ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gabriel Attal will qualify for the second round or win outright in the first round of the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule or called early.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Gabriel Attal advances to the runoff second round of the next French presidential election or wins outright by securing over 50% of the vote in the first round. This market resolves to No if he does not advance, if no such election takes place, or if the first-round results are not known by the cutoff deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior, if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election timeframe: The election is currently expected around April 2027.
- Resolution cutoff date: — First-round results must be known by this time or the market resolves to No.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Government / Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.