Iran leadership change by September 30?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules name Mojtaba Khamenei as the current Supreme Leader and de facto leader of Iran, which introduces significant ambiguity if he does not hold that formal title, leaving open whether the condition is already active or how a transfer from the actual sitting leader is evaluated. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or specified government outlet, giving the decider wide discretion to interpret vague standards like being prevented from acting as leader. Additionally, the rules trigger an early affirmative resolution upon an official announcement of resignation or removal, even if the departure takes effect after the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- High
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran by September 30. Notably, the market specifically designates Mojtaba Khamenei as the incumbent leader and considers an official announcement of his resignation or removal sufficient even if the departure takes effect later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and September 30 (ET). This applies if he is removed from power, detained, loses his position, or is prevented from acting as de facto leader. An official announcement of his resignation or removal qualifies for Yes regardless of when the departure goes into effect. The market resolves to No if these conditions do not occur within the timeframe. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: September 30 (ET)
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.