Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how market capitalization is calculated using shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price on the initial day of trading.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how market capitalization is calculated using shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price on the initial day of trading. The primary exchange's official listing page serves as the designated resolution authority, with sensible contingency procedures outlined for trading halts, abbreviated sessions, and boundary values between brackets. The deadline is fixed to December 31, 2027, with an explicit outcome designated if no public offering occurs by that date.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.3 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization on its IPO day will be within a specific range by the end of 2027. The market has an unusual outcome for no IPO occurring.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading is between $400 billion and $600 billion, inclusive of $600 billion but exclusive of $400 billion. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. The market resolves No if Anthropic's market capitalization on its first day of trading is not within the specified range. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027" if Anthropic does not have an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. If an interruption occurs on the first day of trading, the market resolves according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published for an abbreviated session, the market resolves according to the next trading day's official closing price, treating it as the first day of trading.
Resolution source
the primary exchange’s official listing page
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·