Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly specify how market capitalization is defined and calculated, using the primary exchange's official listing data on the first trading day.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly specify how market capitalization is defined and calculated, using the primary exchange's official listing data on the first trading day. The rules also account for edge cases such as abbreviated trading sessions, circuit breakers, and the contingency that no public listing occurs before the December 31, 2027 deadline. The fallback to another reliable source is standard and only activates if the primary exchange does not display the necessary figures.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization will be less than $100 billion at the close of its initial public offering (IPO) day, with a specific outcome for no IPO by the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization is less than $100 billion at the closing price on its first day of trading. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. The market resolves No if Anthropic's market capitalization is $100 billion or more at the closing price on its first day of trading. If the market capitalization falls exactly on $100 billion, it resolves to No. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027" if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If an interruption occurs during the first day of trading, resolution uses the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published for an abbreviated session, the next trading day with an official closing price is considered the first day of trading. Resolution is based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant figure is not displayed there, another reliable source will be used.
Resolution source
the primary exchange’s official listing page
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·