Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly specify how market capitalization is calculated using the number of outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price on the first trading day.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly specify how market capitalization is calculated using the number of outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price on the first trading day. The primary resolution source is explicitly designated as the official listing page of the primary exchange, with sensible fallbacks defined for missing figures or trading interruptions. Boundary conditions are addressed with a rule resolving exact border values to the higher bracket, and a clear deadline of December 31, 2027, applies if no public listing occurs.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization will be between $300 billion and $400 billion, inclusive of the upper bound, at the close of its initial public offering (IPO) day, by the end of 2027. The market has a specific outcome for no IPO occurring by the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization is between $300 billion and $400 billion, inclusive of $400 billion, at the closing price on its first day of trading. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. The market resolves No if Anthropic's market capitalization is outside the $300 billion to $400 billion range on its IPO day. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027" if Anthropic does not have an initial public offering by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027. If an interruption occurs during the first day of trading, resolution uses the official closing price of the abbreviated session; if no such price is published, the next trading day with an official closing price is considered the first day of trading. Resolution is based on the primary exchange’s official listing page, with a reliable alternative source used if the figure is not displayed there.
Resolution source
primary exchange’s official listing page
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·