Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are clearly specified, defining market capitalization as the total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first day of trading.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are clearly specified, defining market capitalization as the total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first day of trading. The primary exchange's official listing page serves as the designated resolution source, with clear fallback mechanics if the figure is not displayed. The rules also explicitly define boundary conditions for values falling directly on a threshold, establish a precise deadline of December 31, 2027, and outline procedures in the event of trading halts or abbreviated sessions.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization will be between $200 billion and $300 billion, inclusive of the upper bound, at the close of its initial public offering (IPO) trading day. The market has a specific resolution for the absence of an IPO by the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization is between $200 billion and $300 billion, inclusive of $300 billion, at the closing price on its first day of trading. The market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027" if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the number of outstanding shares by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. If trading is interrupted on the first day, the official closing price of the abbreviated session will be used. If no official closing price is published for the first day, the next trading day with an official closing price will be considered the first day of trading. Resolution is based on the primary exchange’s official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not displayed.
Resolution source
the primary exchange’s official listing page
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·