Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?
Last captured price
2.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.1%
$2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the first individual confirmed by the Knesset as Minister of Justice in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections. A key catch is that any appointment or caretaker minister serving before that post-election government forms does not count. If ministerial restructuring occurs, resolution relies on deciding what constitutes primary responsibilities via credible reporting, with an unusual alphabetical tie-break if responsibilities split across multiple new roles. Additionally, there is a fixed expiration date of February 28, 2027; if government formation is delayed past this deadline, the market resolves to a specific non-occurrence outcome regardless of later appointments.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Justice will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Justice” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Justice are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Justice assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ayelet Shaked becomes the Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ayelet Shaked is the first individual to assume office as Israeli Minister of Justice (or a confirmed successor position retaining primary responsibilities) in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections, approved via a Knesset vote of confidence or subsequent approval vote. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count, and subsequent replacements after an initial qualifying appointment do not affect resolution. The market resolves to No if another individual assumes the qualifying role first. If multiple successor positions share primary responsibilities, the individual whose full name comes first alphabetically resolves the market. If no qualifying minister assumes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No Next Minister by Feb 28". Resolution is decided using official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for a qualifying Minister of Justice to assume office before resolving to "No Next Minister by Feb 28".
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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