How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
3 live outcomes · highest priced: 13 at <1% · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $966K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the total count of distinct countries subjected to US military air, drone, or missile strikes during the calendar year 2026. Each market evaluates whether the final count matches a specific number of countries.
How the outcomes relate
The markets represent distinct possible counts for the total number of countries struck. Because the resolution depends on the exact total number of countries struck during 2026, at most one market outcome representing that specific count can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if the total count of different countries' soil struck by qualifying US military actions in 2026 matches the specific number in the question; otherwise, it resolves to No. Qualifying actions require aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US forces that impact another country's ground territory, confirmed by official US acknowledgment or credible reporting consensus. Non-qualifying actions include intercepted munitions, surface-to-air missiles, artillery, small arms, direct FPV/ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, ground operative actions, and strikes within US-controlled territory.
Key dates
- Tracking period start: — 12:00 AM ET
- Tracking period end: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| 14 | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| 15+ | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| 8 | — | — | Med | Low | |
| 9 | — | — | Med | Low | |
| 10 | — | — | Med | Med | |
| 11 | — | — | Med | Med | |
| 12 | — | — | Med | Med |