Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official military registry or comprehensive database, leaving significant room for interpretation regarding covert or contested operations.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official military registry or comprehensive database, leaving significant room for interpretation regarding covert or contested operations. The rules provide specific inclusions and exclusions—such as attributing embassy strikes to host nations and disallowing intercepted munitions, surface-to-air engagements, artillery, or ground operative actions—which help clarify boundaries. However, there is no standardized list of recognized sovereign countries provided, which could introduce disagreement if strikes occur in disputed, non-sovereign, or partially recognized territories.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes on exactly 14 different countries' soil during 2026. The market's resolution is unusual because it specifies a precise number of countries rather than a range or a simple 'yes/no' for any strikes.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes on exactly 14 different countries' soil between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying strike is the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory. Strikes on embassies or consulates count towards the country where they are located. Strikes within US-controlled territory as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET do not count. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes do not count. Actions like artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks do not qualify. The market resolves No if the United States initiates qualifying strikes on any number of countries other than 14. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·