Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official military ledger, leaving latitude in identifying and verifying strikes.
Read the full assessment
The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official military ledger, leaving latitude in identifying and verifying strikes. While the rules specifically detail what types of munitions qualify (aerial bombs, drones, cruise or ballistic missiles), they strictly exclude surface-to-air engagements, intercepted munitions that cause ground damage, naval shelling, and ground artillery. Additionally, counting strikes across distinct countries may introduce boundary or sovereignty questions if strikes occur in disputed or semi-autonomous territories. Resolution will depend on reconciling media and government acknowledgments across the entire calendar year.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States initiates aerial strikes on 15 or more distinct countries in 2026. The market's resolution is unusual because it defines specific types of aerial strikes and excludes others, such as those within US territory or intercepted missiles.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes on 15 or more different countries between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026. A qualifying strike involves aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US military forces impacting another country's ground territory, acknowledged by the US government or credible reporting. Strikes on embassies or consulates count towards the country where they are located. The market resolves No if the United States initiates such strikes on fewer than 15 different countries during the specified period. Strikes within US-controlled territory as of December 31, 2025, do not count. Intercepted missiles or drones, surface-to-air missile strikes, artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or operations by US ground operatives do not qualify. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·