Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on an open-ended consensus of credible reporting rather than an official military registry or designated authority, which leaves significant room for subjective interpretation regarding covert or disputed operations.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on an open-ended consensus of credible reporting rather than an official military registry or designated authority, which leaves significant room for subjective interpretation regarding covert or disputed operations. Traders must navigate strict technical carve-outs: intercepted munitions do not qualify even if debris impacts ground territory, and naval shelling, artillery, surface-to-air engagements, and ground-launched direct fire weapons are explicitly excluded. Additionally, what constitutes an independent country is not explicitly defined, which could create disputes over strikes landing in autonomous or contested territories.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes on 11 or more different countries' soil during 2026. The resolution is unusual because it specifically excludes strikes within US-controlled territory and certain types of military actions.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on 11 or more different countries' soil between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026. A qualifying strike is the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory, officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Strikes on embassies or consulates count towards the country where they are located. Strikes within territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, do not count. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes do not count. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives do not qualify. The market resolves No if the United States initiates such strikes on 10 or fewer different countries' soil during the specified period. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·