Bank of Japan Decision in October?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: 25 bps increase at 3% (−1 pts in 24h) · first close Oct 30, 2026 · $249.5K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision following its October 2026 monetary policy meeting. Markets represent specific rate change brackets for the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate compared to its level prior to the meeting.
How the outcomes relate
Markets correspond to discrete rate-change brackets (such as specific basis point cuts or increases). Because the outcome is determined by the net change in basis points and non-standard changes are rounded to the nearest 25 bps, at most one market bracket can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by the specific number of basis points stated, compared to its level prior to the October 2026 meeting; otherwise it resolves to No. If the rate change is not explicitly listed, it rounds up to the nearest 25 bps to resolve to the relevant bracket. Markets may resolve as soon as the official statement is issued. If no statement is released by the end of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the 'No change' bracket.
Key dates
- Scheduled Statement Release Date: — The Bank of Japan is scheduled to release its Statement on Monetary Policy.
Resolution source
The official website of the Bank of Japan, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 3% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| 50+ bps increase | 1% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| 50+ bps decrease | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| No change | — | — | Not rated | — |