Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Current price
0.55¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.55%
$72.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on official monetary policy statements published on the Bank of Japan website following its October 2026 meeting. The target metric is explicitly defined as the change in the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate compared to its level prior to the meeting. The rules clearly specify how non-standard changes will be handled via rounding up to the nearest 25 basis points bracket. Additionally, there is a clear fallback condition resolving to 'No change' if no official statement is issued before the subsequent monetary policy meeting concludes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Bank of Japan increases the upper bound of its short-term policy interest rate by 50 or more basis points following its October 2026 meeting, with rate changes rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points if not explicitly listed.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Bank of Japan raises the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate by 50 basis points or more compared to the pre-meeting level. Any interest rate change not expressed in the displayed options is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points (for instance, a 12.5 bps change counts as 25 bps). The market resolves to No if the rate change is less than 50 basis points or if rates are cut or unchanged. If no policy statement is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the 'No change' bracket. Resolution is determined by the official Bank of Japan website or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Statement release date: — Scheduled release date for the October 2026 Monetary Policy meeting statement
Resolution source
Official website of the Bank of Japan, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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