Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Last captured price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$18.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
There is a mismatch between the binary framing in the title and the rules, which describe a multi-bracket market resolving to the specific amount of basis points changed. Additionally, the rules include an explicit rounding clause where any non-standard change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points (for example, a 12.5 bps cut would resolve as 25 bps). Resolution primarily relies on the official Bank of Japan policy statement, but allows secondary fallback to a consensus of credible reporting. If no official statement is published before the subsequent meeting concludes, the market defaults to resolving as no change.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Bank of Japan decreases the upper bound of its short-term policy interest rate by 25 basis points following its October 2026 meeting, with fractional or unlisted rate adjustments rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Bank of Japan lowers the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate by 25 basis points relative to its pre-meeting level, including any cut that rounds up to 25 basis points (such as a 12.5 bps reduction). The market resolves to No if the policy rate change falls into a different bracket or is not a 25 bps decrease. If no monetary policy statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the "No change" bracket. The primary deciding source is the official website of the Bank of Japan, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- October 2026 Statement Release: — Scheduled release date for the Statement on Monetary Policy.
Resolution source
Official website of the Bank of Japan
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.