Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?
Current price
8.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 8.5%
$289.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise mathematical definitions, exact comparison timestamps, and specific URLs for each of the three assets being compared (Bitcoin on Binance, Gold continuous contracts on MarketWatch, and the S&P 500 index on Yahoo Finance). Resolution is purely formulaic with no decider discretion. Clear edge-case rules are defined for shortened sessions, missing data, and exact ties, making the outcome objective and predictable once the 2026 trading year concludes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch. The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00. The percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/. If two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin). Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used. If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gold will achieve the highest percentage price gain in 2026 when compared against Bitcoin and the S&P 500.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Gold has the highest percentage price change in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500, or if it ties for the best performance with an asset that comes after it alphabetically. It resolves to No if Bitcoin or the S&P 500 achieves a strictly higher percentage gain, or if Bitcoin ties with Gold. Performance is calculated using closing prices only, without total return measures. Bitcoin's change is measured from Jan 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET using Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candles. Gold's change uses MarketWatch Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) close prices from the last trading day in 2025 to the last trading day in 2026. S&P 500 uses Yahoo Finance (^SPX) close prices over the same period. If a relevant trading day is shortened, the published close is used; if missing, the last valid historical close is used.
Key dates
- Measurement start for Bitcoin: — Measured at 12:00 AM ET on Binance.
- Measurement end for Bitcoin: — Measured at 11:59 PM ET on Binance.
Resolution source
MarketWatch for Gold, Binance for Bitcoin, and Yahoo Finance for the S&P 500
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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