Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
Last captured price
17¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 17%
$456.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly defined with specific data sources, URLs, tickers, and exact timestamps or trading day closes for Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500. Performance is explicitly defined as price return rather than total return, eliminating ambiguity around dividend reinvestment. The rules include explicit instructions on chart settings for Bitcoin, fallback procedures for missing or shortened trading sessions, and an unambiguous alphabetical tie-breaker. Overall, decider latitude is minimal as all calculation inputs come from designated public financial endpoints.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch. The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00. The percentage change in the S&P 500 will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official S&P 500 Index (^SPX) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The resolution source for the S&P 500 will be Yahoo Finance, specifically the Close values published by Yahoo Finance for S&P 500 Index (^SPX) at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history/. If two or more listed assets have exactly the same performance for 2026, this market will resolve according to the asset whose name, as listed in the title of this market, comes first alphabetically (e.g. if Bitcoin and Gold tie, this market will resolve to Bitcoin). Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used. If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin achieves the highest percentage price gain in 2026 compared to Gold and the S&P 500.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Bitcoin achieves the highest percentage price gain in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500. It also resolves to Yes if Bitcoin ties for the best performance, as ties are broken alphabetically by the asset name listed in the market title. The market resolves to No if Gold or the S&P 500 has a higher percentage gain than Bitcoin. Performance calculations use only closing prices without total return adjustments. If a session is shortened, that session's official close is used; if a day lacks a close, the last valid historical close from the source is used. Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles determine Bitcoin prices, MarketWatch GC00 continuous contracts determine Gold prices, and Yahoo Finance ^SPX determines S&P 500 prices.
Key dates
- Bitcoin start reference: — 1-minute candle close at 12:00 AM ET on Binance
- Bitcoin end reference: — 1-minute candle close at 11:59 PM ET on Binance
Resolution source
Binance, MarketWatch, and Yahoo Finance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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