Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
1 live outcome · highest priced: Gold at 7% (−2 pts in 24h) · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $949.1K total volume
About this event
This event tracks which major asset among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 will achieve the highest percentage price increase over the course of 2026. Each individual market asks whether a specific asset will be the top performer.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of one market per asset candidate. Because resolution is determined by which single asset has the best performance in 2026 (with an alphabetical tie-breaker), at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves Yes if its specified asset records the highest percentage price change during 2026 compared to the other two assets, and No otherwise. Performance for Bitcoin is measured using Binance 1-minute close prices from January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Gold is measured via MarketWatch closing prices for the GC00 contract between the last trading day of 2025 and 2026. The S&P 500 is measured via Yahoo Finance closing prices for ^SPX across the same trading days. Ties resolve to the asset appearing first alphabetically in the market title.
Key dates
- Bitcoin Start Time: — Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle on January 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
- Bitcoin End Time: — Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Binance, MarketWatch, and Yahoo Finance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 7% | ▼ 2 | Low | Med | |
| Bitcoin | — | — | Low | Med | |
| S&P 500 | — | — | Not rated | Low |