Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Current price
5.05¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.05%
$42.1M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution hinges on whether an official statement qualifies as definitive. If a qualifying official or federal agency discusses potential biosignatures, unexplained aerial phenomena, or preliminary findings, market deciders must determine whether the statement constitutes definitive confirmation of extraterrestrial life or technology rather than ongoing investigation or speculative commentary. The rules allow resolution to rely on official government statements or a consensus of credible reporting to establish whether the threshold was met, introducing interpretive latitude.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether official representatives of the United States government or US federal agencies definitively confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or extraterrestrial technology before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the President of the United States, any member of the US Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no such definitive statement is made by that deadline. Resolution is determined primarily through official information from the United States government, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by which an official US confirmation must be made.
Resolution source
Official information from the government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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