Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before close
- 7 days before close
- 24 hours before close
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The market lists specific qualifying officials and entities, but evaluating whether a statement definitively confirms extraterrestrial life or technology requires subjective judgment. Statements acknowledging unidentified anomalous phenomena or tentative scientific signals might lead to disputes over whether they meet the definitive threshold. Additionally, while official government releases serve as the primary source, the rules permit relying on a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for interpretation regarding what constitutes sufficient consensus.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether official US government authorities or federal agencies definitively state that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the President of the United States, any member of the US Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no such statement is made by that deadline. The resolution is determined using official information from the United States government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Confirmation deadline: — The deadline by which a definitive statement must be made.
Resolution source
Official information from the government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.