Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31 at 5% · first close Nov 1, 2026 · $43.1M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether the United States government will officially confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology across various specified deadline dates.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of a timeline ladder of deadline dates. More than one market can resolve Yes; for instance, confirmation by an earlier deadline will naturally satisfy the condition for all later deadlines.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if the US President, any US Cabinet member, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before the specified cutoff date and time (11:59 PM ET). If no such official confirmation occurs by the stated deadline, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- October deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET
- End of 2026 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 5% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| October 31 | 1% | ±0 | Med | High |