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CryptoCloses · in 2 days$80.1K volumePart of: What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15? →

Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 November 9-15?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market has well-defined and deterministic resolution criteria.

Read the full assessment

This market has well-defined and deterministic resolution criteria. It relies strictly on a single, named objective data source: the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high price. The exact time window (from 12:00 AM ET on November 9 to 11:59 PM ET on November 15) and price threshold ($76,000) are explicitly specified, leaving no room for decider discretion or source ambiguity. It resolves immediately upon hitting the target, which matches standard expectation for an interval price target market.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

2%

chance

▼ −23.25 pts · 24h

Yes2¢
No98¢
↑ 76,000 · Yes · 1MO 43.0 H 59.5 L 1.2 C 2.3−40.8 (−94.8%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −50 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 03:25 UTC

The probability fell from 46% to 8% as Bitcoin dropped 0.6% on Binance during the move hour, making reaching $76,000 less likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.6% in the move hour, +0.1% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 4 days after the move hour.
  • 4 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 78,000 (down), ↓ 70,000 (down), ↑ 80,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 21:05 UTC

Earlier

▼ −13 pts · 12 Nov 2026, 01:40 UTCThe market price dropped from 47% to 34% as Bitcoin fell 0.6% on Binance during the move hour, making reaching the $76,000 target less likely.Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 01:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Market explained

This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches or exceeds a price of $76,000 on Binance between November 9 and November 15.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance has a final High price equal to or greater than $76,000 between 12:00 AM ET on November 9 and 11:59 PM ET on November 15. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is determined solely using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle High prices, excluding prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle High prices

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·