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CryptoCloses · in 2 days$71.3K volumePart of: What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15? →

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 November 9-15?

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Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide precise and objective criteria for resolution.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide precise and objective criteria for resolution. The outcome is determined exclusively by 1-minute candle high prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance within a clearly specified timezone window (ET) between November 9 and November 15. It includes an immediate early resolution trigger if the target price is touched, and clearly specifies that prices from other exchanges or trading pairs will not be considered.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

2%

chance

▼ −5.75 pts · 24h

Yes2¢
No98¢
↑ 78,000 · Yes · 1MO 41.5 H 41.5 L 0.5 C 1.8−39.8 (−95.8%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −13 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 15:40 UTC

The probability of Bitcoin reaching $78,000 dropped from 16% to 3% as Bitcoin fell 3.17% over the window on Binance, leaving it about 8.87% below the target price with time running short.

  • Largest hourly change: 17:00 UTC, 27% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.3% in the move hour, −3.2% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 4 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 72,000 (up), ↓ 66,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 15:51 UTC

Earlier

▼ −25 pts · 11 Nov 2026, 01:25 UTCThe market fell from 40% to 16% as Bitcoin fell 1.6% on Binance during the hour, making reaching the $78,000 threshold less likely.Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 01:40 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Market explained

This market measures whether Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) reaches a high price of $78,000 or greater on Binance between November 9 and November 15.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair reaches a final High price of $78,000 or greater between 12:00 AM ET on November 9 and 11:59 PM ET on November 15. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle meets or exceeds this threshold during the specified window. Resolution relies solely on the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair 1-minute chart; other trading pairs, exchanges, or spot markets do not count.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·