Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting or official Israeli acknowledgment rather than a specific designated registry.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting or official Israeli acknowledgment rather than a specific designated registry. The rules contain several specific exclusions that could surprise participants: Gaza, the West Bank, and territory controlled by Israel as of year-end 2025 are excluded from counting. Additionally, intercepted munitions do not qualify even if debris impacts the ground and causes damage, and surface-to-air missiles, artillery, naval shelling, and FPV drones are explicitly disqualified. The phrasing does not clarify whether the target requires at least 13 countries or exactly 13, nor does it define the standard list of recognized sovereign countries.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel conducts qualifying air, drone, or missile strikes impacting the soil of at least 13 distinct countries in 2026. Strikes in Israeli-controlled territory, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip are excluded.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Israeli military forces initiate qualifying aerial bomb, drone, or missile strikes that impact the ground territory of 13 or more distinct countries between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026. Strikes must be officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or supported by a consensus of credible reporting. Strikes on foreign embassies or consulates count toward the host nation. Intercepted munitions, surface-to-air missiles, artillery fire, small arms fire, direct FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, and strikes within territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, the West Bank, or the Gaza Strip do not count. The market resolves No if fewer than 13 distinct countries are struck under these criteria by the end of 2026. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·