Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting or official Israeli acknowledgment rather than an official index, giving the resolver latitude in verifying strike locations and attribution.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting or official Israeli acknowledgment rather than an official index, giving the resolver latitude in verifying strike locations and attribution. The rules contain strict technical carve-outs that could conflict with general news reporting: intercepted projectiles do not count even if their debris impacts ground territory, surface-to-air missiles do not qualify, and strikes via naval shelling, artillery, direct FPV/ATGM, or ground incursions are excluded. Additionally, strikes within the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Israeli-controlled areas as of the baseline cutoff are omitted from the count.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel initiates qualifying drone, missile, or air strikes that impact the territory of 11 different countries during the calendar year 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Israel initiates qualifying strikes impacting the soil of at least 11 different countries between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026. Qualifying strikes are aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by Israeli military forces that impact ground territory, confirmed by Israeli government acknowledgement or credible reporting. Embassies and consulates count toward their host country. Territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip are excluded. Intercepted projectiles, surface-to-air missiles, artillery, small arms, direct FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, and cyberattacks do not count. The market resolves No if the threshold is not reached. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·