Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official registry or single authority, which leaves room for editorial interpretation when determining whether specific military actions qualify.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official registry or single authority, which leaves room for editorial interpretation when determining whether specific military actions qualify. Furthermore, several weapon types and combat scenarios are excluded: artillery, naval shelling, direct FPV or anti-tank guided missile strikes, surface-to-air missiles, and any projectiles that are intercepted before impact (even if falling debris strikes ground territory and causes damage). Strikes on the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Israeli-controlled territory as of the end of 2025 are also excluded. Anyone tracking military engagements must be aware that broad conflict reports may include tactics, intercepted strikes, or munitions that the rules strictly disqualify.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel conducts qualifying drone, missile, or air strikes impacting the ground territory of at least 10 different countries in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Israel initiates aerial bombs, drones, or missile strikes that impact the ground territory of 10 or more different countries between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026. Strikes on embassies or consulates count toward the host country. Strikes within territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, or within the West Bank or Gaza Strip, do not count. Intercepted drones or missiles, surface-to-air missile strikes, artillery, small arms fire, FPV/ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, and cyberattacks are excluded. The market resolves No if the total number of qualifying countries struck is fewer than 10. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·