Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$902.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify a precise, publicly accessible data source from NASA GISS and identify the exact table, column, and row to use for ranking global temperatures. Resolution locks in immediately upon the initial release of data without being altered by later retrospective adjustments, removing uncertainty around data revisions. If NASA does not publish data by March 1, 2027, a clear backup process using credible reporting is defined. The tie-handling rule is straightforward, and the decider is left with minimal subjective discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether 2026 will rank specifically as the fifth-hottest year on record according to global temperature data, accounting for ties based on the shared rank position.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if 2026 ranks as the fifth-hottest year in descending temperature order in NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. If 2026 ties with any other year, it resolves according to the place occupied by the tied year. The market resolves to No if 2026 finishes in any rank other than fifth. Resolution occurs immediately upon data release regardless of future revisions. The primary source is NASA's Land-Ocean Temperature Index (No_Smoothing column). If that data is permanently unavailable, other NASA data will be used. If NASA provides no data by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- NASA reporting fallback deadline: — If NASA provides no data for 2026 by this time, consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolution source
NASA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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